Proceed with caution, my friends!
What am I talking about? Well, be careful with buying into too many end-of-season narratives and applying them to your game analysis for your NFL picks
Yes, we all know that a handful of teams have nothing to play for because they’re eliminated from the playoffs. We all know there’s a handful of head coaches who’ll be fired at season’s end. We all know there are a lot of teams who will be extra motivated to win over the next two weeks… you know who else knows this – the oddsmakers!
It’s also important to keep in mind that all those players and coaches on losing teams do have plenty to play for. Many players will be looking to make a strong final impression ahead of free agency. Lots of coaches are fighting to keep their jobs or to land a promotion. A lot of these guys are also hyper-competitive people who have no interest in laying down for a superior team with the offseason right around the corner.
Will some teams/players/coaches simply mail it in? Probably, but it’s a true guessing game trying to figure that out.
Week 17 from last season, for example, saw results such as the 49ers barely squeaking by the Raiders as a 10-point NFL odds favorite, while the Chiefs needed a fourth-quarter surge to beat the Broncos by three in a game where KC was favored by 12.5. Even last week’s results had the three teams that were double-digit underdogs all cover the spread.
The point is, don’t put all your eggs into one basket betting on the “nothing to play for” narratives. Perhaps consider taking your foot off the gas just a little bit with the playoffs fast approaching.
Best of luck in Week 17. Now let’s get started on breaking down some NFL betting trends!
